The Unlikely Cy Young Quest: Why Mason Miller’s Dominance Might Not Be Enough
Baseball has always been a sport of narratives, and right now, Mason Miller’s story is one of the most captivating. The San Diego Padres closer is doing something extraordinary—a 0.00 ERA, a 71.1% strikeout rate, and a presence that turns the ninth inning into a spectacle. But here’s the twist: despite all this, his path to the Cy Young Award is fraught with challenges that go far beyond his stats.
The Closer’s Dilemma: Dominance in a Changed Game
What makes Miller’s situation so intriguing is how it reflects the evolution of baseball. Closers like him used to be outliers—flame-throwing specialists who dominated in ways that demanded recognition. Think of Eric Gagné in 2003 or Dennis Eckersley in 1992. But today’s game is different. The bullpen is no longer a place for one-man shows; it’s a factory of 100+ mph fastballs and wipeout sliders. Personally, I think this oversaturation of elite relievers has diluted the impact of individual dominance. Miller’s numbers are jaw-dropping, but they’re not as unique as they would’ve been two decades ago.
Take Riley O’Brien of the Cardinals, for example. He’s also posting a 0.00 ERA with six saves. What many people don’t realize is that in today’s MLB, being great isn’t enough—you have to be historically great to stand out. And even then, it might not be enough.
The Cy Young Bias: Why Starters Still Rule
Here’s where things get complicated. The Cy Young Award has always favored starters, and for good reason. Pitching 200+ innings with a sub-3.00 ERA is a herculean feat. But relievers? They’re often seen as specialists, no matter how dominant. Since 2016, only two relievers have finished higher than fourth in Cy Young voting. That’s not just a trend—it’s a mindset.
If you take a step back and think about it, Miller would need to do something unprecedented to win. He’d have to strike out hitters at a rate we’ve never seen, lead the league in saves, and probably still hope for a down year from the top starters. It’s not just about being great; it’s about redefining what greatness means for a reliever in 2026.
The Era of the Starter: A Historical Perspective
Let’s compare Miller to past Cy Young-winning relievers. Mark Davis in 1989? He threw 92.2 innings with a 1.85 ERA. Eric Gagné in 2003? 82.1 innings with a 1.20 ERA. Miller is projected for around 81 innings this season, which isn’t far off. But here’s the catch: those seasons were groundbreaking for their time. Today, they’d be impressive but not necessarily award-winning.
What this really suggests is that the bar for relievers has been raised, not by voters, but by the game itself. Starters like Paul Skenes, who won the 2025 NL Cy Young, are throwing fewer innings but maintaining elite performance. That makes them more valuable in the eyes of voters.
The Psychological Factor: Why Voters Hesitate
One thing that immediately stands out is the psychological bias against relievers. Voters seem to equate innings pitched with value. A starter who throws 180+ innings is seen as a workhorse, while a reliever who throws 80 innings is seen as a specialist. It’s a flawed logic, but it’s deeply ingrained.
In my opinion, this bias overlooks the sheer difficulty of being a closer. Every pitch matters. Every mistake is magnified. Miller’s job isn’t just to get outs—it’s to end games, often in high-pressure situations. That’s a unique kind of dominance, but it’s one that voters haven’t fully appreciated in recent years.
The Future of the Cy Young: A Changing Narrative?
So, can Miller win? Technically, yes. But he’d need to be more than dominant—he’d need to be revolutionary. He’d need to force voters to rethink what they value in a pitcher. A detail that I find especially interesting is how this connects to a larger trend in baseball: the shift away from traditional roles. As the game evolves, so should our criteria for greatness.
If Miller does win, it wouldn’t just be a victory for him—it would be a statement about the changing nature of the sport. But until then, he’s fighting an uphill battle against history, bias, and the very structure of the game.
Final Thoughts: A Dominance That Deserves Recognition
Mason Miller is doing something special, and whether or not he wins the Cy Young, his season should be celebrated. From my perspective, his story highlights a broader issue in baseball: how we define and reward excellence. Is it about innings pitched? Strikeouts? Saves? Or is it about the impact a player has on the game?
Personally, I think Miller’s dominance deserves more than just a footnote in this season’s narrative. But in a game that’s slow to change, even the most extraordinary performances can get lost in the shuffle. And that, to me, is the real story here.
